Who is Raymond Reddington from the Blacklist?

 

The Blacklist is a popular crime series that have hooked millions of people around the world. The question about Red's identity has been crucial since day one. We ask now, who is Raymond Reddington? We will provide actual details from the same series to explain possible identities of Raymond Reddington.

Theory framework

A theory is founded on known facts and observations, in order to predict if a theory is true, it should be testable, and compatible with new evidence. If it is not, then the theory is either refined or rejected. In the media world, the same rule applies, just more about new information conceptualising the theory being correct. New information must fit the structure of the whole story. 

Let's apply it to something very simple. For example, theorising a character is an orphan is validated if the story later revealed that the character lived in a foster house after his parents were killed. But should be rejected if it later shows that the character has at least one parent.

 

Russian asset

Raymond Reddington, we know, told Elizabeth Keen that despite what she and Cooper believe, he is not a Russian asset, he is a criminal. Ivan is not his handler; he is an old friend. As Red stands making his explanations, his hands move, creating a visual framework stating "this is Raymond Reddington". When he says this is Raymond Redington, the theory is he is saying the Raymond Redington that was created to monitor the danger around Elizabeth. 

The man who is everything her father was not. A theory that works could be Raymond is impersonating the person they created in order to monitor the danger around Elizabeth. A valid theory of identity here is “Raymond Redington” or “An unknown individual”.

 

The story

Reddington began the story with saying N-13, the Fulcrum, You, Me, Your mother. He did not include her father. We know her father created the Fulcrum. Why did Reddington not say Your father, since he is one of the most important characters in the story. Both Raymond Redington we know and Katarina Rostova simultaneously say "... and the truth." ... "To understand why I came into your life, you need to hear my story."  

Both Katarina Rostova and the Raymond Redington we know have a story they both would like to share. Both Reddington and Katarina have a story that explains why Redington came into Elizabeth's life. Since this is not a biased theory, three people fit this fact: Raymond Redington, Katarina Rostova and an Unknown individual. 

 

Operative

Dom was not only part of the system that monitor subvert and snuff out dissidence, he helped build it. Katarina has been part of the system since she was a child, helping the fifth directorate. The work – according to her – was literally in her DNA. Katarina Rostova wouldn't be careless with the intelligence when she gets it from Stepanov, because it has been in her DNA. 

However, someone who was new to handling intelligence would be careless at first with some of the materials. This filter out the possibilities that Katarina could be Raymond Redington.

 

Blown up house

The house Redington blew up in season one episode six shows it was the house Red was comfortable around, where he plays with Jennifer as a child, watching Katarina holding Masha, and taking pictures. Katarina said she helped babysit Jennifer once, and it was uncomfortable playing house. It means she found it uncomfortable doing things that family normally do. This is for a period of time. This is different from Reddington discovering one thing that happened when she was babysitting and playing house. She was stealing intel from him. 

He realized she was a plant. This is also the building where Red discovered he let an enemy into his life, his family. The house is where he found out Katarina opened his suitcase. This is when he knew Katarina was a plant, and their whole relationship was a lie.  He realised the woman she wanted to leave his wife and kid for was actually a lie and a plant. 

He told Katarina He will leave his wife, when she told him about being pregnant with Masha. It is a likely explanation to what Redington meant when he said, "I tried to forget what happened in this house, hopefully this would help" in season 1 episode 6. Basically, what happened in this house is, he found out the woman he wanted to leave his family for was sent to betray him. 

It would be very stressful for anyone. This suggests Red Redington could actually be the real Red Redington – just the person Illya and Katarina created. There is nothing that suggests a traumatic event happened to Katarina in this house that would warrant her to want to blow it up. She was sent there to betray him, so she consciously made all the decisions to do as her father wished. We know nothing traumatic happened to Katarina Rostova in this house. But this is the place Reddington began playing games with Katarina Rostova.

 

Exposure

Reddington wanted to get Masha to the USA, so he could expose the truth about Katarina and keep Masha safe. Reddington knew that they would come for Masha when he took her to the USA, but they would also be looking for fulcrum, a blackmail file he had created on the Cabal, its members, and its ultimate goals. We did not see Reddington put the Fulcrum in the bunny.

But we did see him holding the Fulcrum Elizabeth found in the bunny.

 

Branded traitor 

Katarina asked Red to protect himself, if he won't protect her. Katarina told Red they have evidence that shows she did not steal the Intelligence, but instead that he sold it to her. If he moves forward with what he knows they won't believe him. With Katarina's statement, and a paper trail of false evidence against him, Reddington would be branded a traitor. The framing of Reddington as a traitor is also seen in s06e09, where we learned that prior to the night of fire Katarina and Fitch planned to brand Reddington a traitor. 

This is where Fitch told Katarina he wants Reddington dealt with before Christmas. This proves that Katarina Rostova created Raymond Redington – the traitor. She was part of the architecture that created his story. This suggests that Reddington's story was no longer his own, but the one created for him.  He could become someone else who fits the story that was created for him.

 

Burning man on the floor

An unnamed man was seen with fire on him. Redington has burns on his back. However, in season six episode one, the police officer in charge of the fire investigation told Elizabeth and Jennifer that whoever was there was long gone before firemen got there. No one saw Katarina or anyone in season 8 episode 21 helping the man up, so if he survived, he did so on his own. The only other person wearing black coat was Illya, and he survived.

 

Why Katarina was wanted

Raymond said he began playing games with Katarina, letting her steal from him, so he could steal from her. This game went on for two years. He expected to find out she was working for the KGB, but he found something much bigger. Katarina was also spying on the KGB; she was connected to the Cabal. Russia being aware of the affair between Katarina and Reddington wouldn't be a reason KGB would be after Katarina. However, finding out that Katarina has been spying on the KGB would be why she is wanted. 

Katarina was hiding from the KGB, Cabal (who knew Redington stole intelligence) out of fear that the existence of a shadow organisation that controls the world would be leaked. Cabal was worried that the KGB would find Katarina, and she would tell them about the Cabal when tortured. 

The CIA is not after Katarina – just the Cabal. In season 6 episode 16, A CIA officer told Ressler that hunting for spies who did not return after the cold war was not a high priority. The only ones looking for Katarina on the US side were the Cabal. Redington is wanted by the US and Russia.

A temporary solution to avoid capture was Ilya's idea to become Raymond Reddington for a few days to get the 40 million dollars. Katarina realised that a new Red would be good for keeping Elizabeth safe.

 

Katarina vanished

As mentioned before, Katarina was hidden from the KGB, Cabal (who knew Redington stole intelligence about their existence) out of fear that the intelligence of their existence could be leaked. Cabal was afraid that the KGB would find Katarina, and she would tell them about the cabal. Katarina says she had vanished and Masha was safe when Dominique made the calculation of sacrificing Tatiana in exchange for Katarina Rostova. Katarina was a phantom, so any woman could be believed to be her. Tatiana would be identified as Katarina in Belgrade, and she would die. Everyone would stop looking for Katarina Rostova. 

Katarina stayed hidden because she was a phantom, someone people don't know. No one knows what she looks like. It made it easy for Dominique to tell the world anyone was Katarina Rostova. As a result, the world believed that Tatiana was in fact Katarina Rostova. This includes Neville Townsend. Only Cabal knows the real Katarina Rostova. But if the Russian told the Cabal she is dead, they would most likely believe it. This suggests that Katarina Rostova has no reason to become Redington, because Dominique put a face on Katarina who, according to Illya, was a phantom. She wasn’t unknown, she was identified as a female, while N-13 was identified as a man. Katarina being Redington has been filtered away, while Red Redington could be twin brother, or even possibly Red Redington. 

 

Redington's guilt

Redington found out about Tatiana being setup to be Katarina, while Katarina stayed hidden, he was guilt-ridden and horrified. This was years after the Belgrade incident where Tatiana's husband was killed. Dom says Redington was right to feel guilty for setting up Tatiana to be Katarina, because it was his fault that a plan was needed in the first place. Why would Redington have the right to feel guilty, when Dom tried to setup KGB to kill Tatiana to protect his daughter and granddaughter? 

This suggests that Dom blames Redington for something, and he has obviously forgiven his daughter. Why would Redington have the right to feel guilty for what Dom did, if Redington actually died that night? Why would a new Redington feel guilty for such a thing when he was created after the original Redington allegedly died? Did Redington literally die or metaphorically die? Raymond can be the original twin brother, or someone unknown with deep roots in Raymond.

 

Hiding Tatiana

Tatiana found out that Red was hiding Katarina or knew where she was. Tatiana has to hide because the world thought she was Katarina. But, if she could find Katarina and prove to the world that she is not Katarina, she could have her life back. Tatiana knew that Liz is the only person who is close to Red, and her love for her mother could be used to help find out where she was. The love would be used to turn the two against one another. 

 

Redington's creation

The Raymond Redington we know never existed before the creation. Long before Dominique tricked Tatiana, Katarina created someone who could be with Liz – Raymond Redington. People hunting for Katarina were also hunting for Liz. She couldn't look out for Liz, not while hiding. She re-animated her mark. If HE wasn't dead, you'd never know you'd killed him. No one knew her father was dead. The US and Russian government were looking for a man who never existed. 

Then they asked themselves a question, what if Raymond Redington was real? (Why do they use the term her father and Redington like they are two separate people?) If it was, then they could create someone to fit the story they have written for him. To be the traitor who betrayed his country. She constructed him, someone powerful and feared, someone who traded in the very secrets that help him monitor the danger around Elizabeth. They created a persona, a complete transformation. We saw the very same Redington trading secrets with two gentlemen. 

The KGB, CIA, CABAL all believe that Redington had changed his appearance, so an original double is not needed. We can see that the man making the deal with the two gentlemen is in fact the Raymond Redington we know. They needed intelligence that Redington was accused of stealing, so they turned to Ivan Stepanov. They did not need the kind of information that only Raymond Redington would know, but the one he was accused of stealing. We know Raymond stole intelligence from Katarina that proved the existence of Cabal. And the intelligence in the 13 packages.

Ivan used Katarina's details and backdated the breach to get the 13 packages that became the seed of Red's empire. Ivan gave the intelligence to Redington. 13 packages of intelligence that can be used to blackmail powerful people. Soon classified NOFORN docs start showing up, built for one reason, keeping Elizabeth safe. Elizabeth’s father and Raymond Redington could be two different people, because her father was neither a criminal nor traitor. But the person who took his name was a traitor. What if what they meant Raymond Redington and her father are metaphorically different. But what of the bones? The question becomes what bought the match up? 

 

Tatiana knew where Kat was hiding

Reddington funded Tatiana's life for nearly 30 years, and she was grateful for his protection. It was Liz who brought her out from the shadows. Liz's insistence in looking for her mother was not only a danger to Tatiana but suggested that Katarina might be in hiding. Reddington killed Tatiana to stop her from telling Townsend where Katarina was hiding. The original Katarina can do this as well.

 

Red decided to live as Redington

Red's decision to live as Raymond Redington, giving up his life to live as someone else. He can't imagine loving anyone to do that. If Katarina Rostova is in fact Raymond Redington, a father who spent decades trying to avenge what happens to his family would understand why a mother would do so much. However, it is possible for Raymond Redington, who had imagined being an outlaw when he was young, to live the life he always wanted. Redington told the man who attacked Elizabeth in season 3 episode 12. 

Katarina did not have this kind of fantasy, because she wanted to follow another path that did not involve being an operative or outlaw. Basically, Raymond Redington is living out the fantasy he had as a child. This leaves out Katarina Rostova.

 

Red's irresponsibility with intelligence

Raymond Redington told Neville Townsend that he was irresponsible with the intelligence when he received it, an act that was never Katarina’s issues. Red was young and careless with some of the materials in the Sikorsky Archive which put the Townsend family in harm’s way. Even though he did not kill them, Townsend was right to believe that he was responsible for it. Katarina has been handling intelligence since she was a child, the job has been in her DNA since childhood. She knows how to handle intelligence and has no reason to be careless with some of the material.

 

Who is Raymond Redington?

Red’s twin brother is a valid possibility, given the information that we have. However, it does not fit why the house Red blew up would be of any significance to him. 

Red could be “another version” of Redington, which supports the house he blew up. But what about the bones they found? That may need to be addressed further. The question become how was the bones identified. It was identified through Jennifer. What if it was the person Carla cheated on her husband with? What if the bones are of the twin brother?

Red being Katarina is invalid because then there is no need for Katarina to blow up the house, as he did in s01e06. And it won’t explain why Dom says Red should feel guilty for his action in s08e21. And he won’t need to find a way to pretend to kill Katarina to prevent them from hunting Katarina. It won’t make any logical sense that someone who is already Redington would need a face, and people would stop hunting her. This was years after Katarina re-created her mark. She won’t be careless with intelligence when she gets the intel. These are only some of the reasons why Raymond being Katarina is invalid.

He could be the unknown with deep knowledge about Raymond Redington. This does have more questions than answers.

Occam Razor has a principle that says “a scientific and philosophical rule that entities should not be multiplied unnecessarily”. The complex and simplest way to explain something is usually the correct one. The question becomes, which concept and theory help identify the person who did not require unnecessary multiplications?